January 8, 2008

Hillary Clinton Wins in New Hampshire ... What Next for Barack Obama?

I am trying to understand what happened tonight in the New Hampshire primary. A few hours ago the polls showed Barack Obama was leading in New Hampshire by as much as 13% ... yet, when the New Hampshire voters went behind the curtain of the voting booth they changed their minds and voted for Hillary Clinton.

Why? What the heck happened up there in New Hampshire?

  • Women Voters - Obama won among women voters in Iowa. Clinton won bigtime among women voters in New Hampshire. I guess her emotional moment where she cried on television was a turning point for the women of New Hampshire. That moment ... scripted by Hillary or real? Personally, I think that she did it on purpose to get sympathy ... and it appears to have worked. Who knew?
  • Bill Clinton - Yesterday, the media was portraying Bill Clinton as Boo-Boo the fool. Today he is a queen-maker. It appears that Bill Clinton is paying back his wife for his infidelities by doing whatever it takes, including being the attack dog on Obama. Bill Clinton ... who many of us referred to as the first Black president is now willingly taking regular potshots at a truly competitive Black presidential candidate. Do we miss the 1990s so much that we want a re-run in the White House?
  • Young Voters - It looks like the youngsters in New Hampshire willingly came out to the campaign events ... but, apparently, some of them forgot to go vote. It feels like the young voters in New Hampshire were enjoying the tailgating party ... but, didn't buy a ticket to the dayum game itself!.
  • Black Voters - Oh yeah, there weren't many in New Hampshire. There are plenty in South Carolina. Will brothers and sisters in South Carolina buy into the 'Yes We Can' motto of Barack Obama ... or will we follow the lead of Civil Rights era Blacks like John Lewis, Andrew Young and others.
  • Bradley Effect - I lived in Los Angeles back when Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. The polls all indicated that he would win. However, on election night the victory went to George Deukmejian. White voters simply lied to pollsters. But Villager ... the polls called it right in Iowa ... Yeah, but Iowa was a caucus state and you had to stand up in front of a crowd ... so your inner race-based fears of the Blackman can't show itself as easily as it can when it's just you behind the voting booth curtain.

What do you think? Why did the air come out of the Barack Obama balloon in the New Hampshire primary? Did racism begin to poke its head out from the voting booths in New Hampshire? Perhaps equally important ... what does this say about his chances in Nevada and South Carolina?


Miriam said...

wow, what an interesting turn of events.

Villager said...

Miriam - Yeah ... it has been a remarkable five days from Iowa (Jan 3) until New Hampshire (Jan 8).

Should make for an interesting few weeks until the first week in Feb 2008.

Anyhow, thank you for sharing your village voice. I hope you come back often...

msladydeborah said...

It is going to make for an interesting time in the next two races.

I am not surprised that Hillary won. I do not believe pollsters. I am one of those people who feel that polls only hype up a situation. They do not give the true outcome of any situation.

I have been saying all along that this was going to be a battle. In war you win some and loose some.

This time it was Hillary's moment.

Hopefully things will shape up differently in the next two races. I suspect that NC is going to be a real tight squeeze too.

Danielle said...

Hillary showing emotion with a rough voice from campaigning didn't hurt. Though it may have been strategy we can't forget that all the candidates are human.

This is only the second state we have 48 more to go. Polls are worthless in my book away. My man, Kucinich, has won several secure progressive activist polls, the Nation magazine poll, the Democracy for America poll and others. It seems though that we are spread out in this country and a block hasn't been tapped yet.

If Obama doesn't put some substance into his message I fear he will learn hope don't float.

In every case all remaining citizens need to vote! We will get what we settle for. We will get what we collectively deserve. Research deeply, voting records, senior advisers to the campaigns and the money trail.

Obama has ads now here. Clinton was first. Obama has 11 offices in Nevada and they are all over the valley. I have to caucus, I am beginning to realize that I am in untreaded water. Viability (15% of all participants)and second choices become important. Brokering deals is part of the strategy too.

We had some Obama canvassers come by who it turned out had attended the town hall meeting with Kucinich with us. They were very respectful and knocked on our door especially since we had a Kucinich sign.

I expressed a hope to allot delegates to as many candidates as possible, an equal distribution of viability at least for our precinct.

I also got a promise to share supporters if Obama meets the viability factor overwhelmingly and she is the precinct chair for Obama.

If I don't get 15% for Kucinich, I have to either join another group to help them achieve viability or add more numbers for more delegates for that candidate, caucus as an undecided voter or not be counted at all. All this in 30 minutes. I can't wait.

This has been so exciting.

As always my friend.

Villager said...

Lady Deborah - I was fully surprised by the outcome. It seems so odd that all the polls on the past few days in New Hampshire were so very wrong. I'll be interested to see what the post-election analysis is all about. I understand that about 15% of the electorate made their decision on the final day (after the pollsters did their work).

Villager said...

Danielle - You will be the center of the world's attention over the next week as we go into the Nevada caucus. I'm very excited to know that you will be intimately engaged in the process. Will you be blogging about this matter on Modern Musings this month?

Barbara said...

Who knows what happened and why, but we have to move on in faith and conviction that Obama represents the best opportunity for our country. Since I am a believer in the law of attraction, I think that all that emphasis on Hillary prior to NH (regardless of how you spin it==positive or negative) had an effect on the outcome. We have to be Pro-Obama and not Anti-(insert name of any opposing candidate here). Obama himself practices this by not engaging in negative campaigning and that is just one of the reasons I like him so much. That's my take.

Jennifer said...

Not racism but a sympathy vote for Clinton showing her "voice" the other day when she was all choked up in speaking to her potential supporters. However, it seems as though many young women were at her speech this evening. So, maybe it was all of these young women who supported her to reach her goal. It was interesting. She was respectful of all the candidates in her speech.

Barbara said...

After I posted here, I did some checking and found the CNN website that explains the delegate selection process. Interesting to see that both Clinton and Obama received 9 delegates EACH for New Hampshire. That sounds like a tie to me. I just wrote a brief entry on my blog about it with the link.

Jennifer said...

Wow. Read this:

Yobachi said...

I gave my analysis of these same factors. I never really believed he was up by 12 percent, it just didn't make much sense; but I did expect him to win.

It's politics, it's topsy turby. Voters are like juries, nobody really knows which way they're going to go.

My analysis: http://www.blackperspective.net/index.php/women-buy-hillarys-tears-leading-her-to-victory-in-new-hampshire/

Anonymous said...

Villager...back you go to Bill Clinton's infidelity. If he is trying to make up for it, at least he is. Would that all unfaithful husbands or wives do the same.

Why not stick to the issues without dragging the Clinton's through the mud for what you call a "dysfunctional marriage"? How do YOU know it is dysfunctional and what bearing does that have on who is the best person to lead our country?

I'm for Obama all the way, but I don't think attack and personal opinion comments vis a vis the Clintons are helpful. They sound like the same slams Clinton is making only in reverse.

homelandcolors said...

New Hampshire has me wondering about South Carolina. I think the most important thing about getting a win in New Hampshire was proving to African Americans in South Carolina that an African American candidate could win. Iowa is great but I have am worried that what stops Obama won't be Whites who are racist against African Americans. I think his only threat is Blacks who vote against him because he's Black. I think it is important that we call leaders to task in South Carolina to prevent this from happening.

MrsGrapevine said...

1.I think much like the republicans voted for McCain, many democrat voters had their minds made about voting for Hillary, and didn't bother to come out to the rallies. So where it seems like Obama drew the crowds, many of Hillary's supporters just went straight to the booth and bypass the media circus.

2.NH has a quite a bit of older women, and even in Iowa Hillary carried the votes of older women.

3.I also think women were tired of seeing the men attack Hillary in the debates. I don't think they bought the tears a bit, but I do think they felt Hillary was being demonized by the media and came to her aid.

4.Many of the independents voted for McCain, although the polls had the majority going to Obama.

5.4. Last I don't think we should under estimate the power of nostalgia, or the Clinton Euphoria. Many of us felt things were good during the Clintonian years.

Torrance Stephens bka All-Mi-T said...

dont mean nothing i figure, but i have anoter purview of the primaries.... poor mr or mrs next president

Villager said...

Barbara - I like the reminder that you give to us about having faith. That is definitely important. We have to ensure that our faith is supported by our actions. I'm going to redouble my efforts to ensure that all villagers are REGISTERED TO VOTE this year. We cannot take anything for granted ... we're going to have to come out in record numbers in order to ensure that the 2008 election isn't stolen from us again (as it was in 2000).

Villager said...

Jennifer - Hillary was respectful to candidates that are't even in the race anymore (Dodd,, Biden, etc). However, earlier that week ... when she thought she was going to lose in New Hampshire ... she (and Bill Clinton) weren't as respectful to Barack Obama. And it seems that their tactics paid off...

Nevada is the next battleground (Jan 15th caucus). Any thoughts on how that one will turn out?

Villager said...

Barbara - I didn't realize that they each received 9 delegates. Good info. Thanx for sharing that one with us and the readers of your blog as well.

Did you see the total delegate count at the moment? Clinton is up by 100 or so when you add in the so-called 'super delegates'.

Yobachi said...

Homelandcolors, as I said in my post on a possible Obama presidency yesterday, it's sad that Black folks feel they need to look to white folks for permission to vote for a brotha - the miseducation continues


Villager, I haven't heard any analysis on Nevada; but shouldn't Bill Richardson win, he is the current sitting governor. If he doesn't, then he has to get out otherwise his candidacy is just a laughing stock that's not even funny.

Villager said...

Yobachi - Jennifer pointed me to a Maureen Dowd editorial in the NY Times that said much the same thing about women ... particularly women over 45 years of age.

It makes me wonder ... how will Black Women in South Carolina decide on the choice between Hillary and Barack?

Villager said...

Anon - Asante sana for sharing your village voice with us. My thought is that the Clintons have been consistently slamming negative attacks at Barack Obama for a number of weeks now. It appears that the negative attacks were enough to swing the tide of the election in New Hampshire.

As for my knowledge of their dysfunctional family arrangement. I don't know either of them personally, but their situation appears to be well-documented in books ... including the autobiography of Bill Clinton.

Personally, I've always liked Bill Clinton. However, I think that his attacks ('roll the dice', 'fairyland' and such) on Barack Obama will spoil the relationship that he has had with Black America.

Time will tell.

Villager said...

HomelandColors - You may be right ... it did appear that folks piled on her at the debate last weekend ... and the media became to eat it up with banner headlines like "Panic". Should be interesting how the political chess game continues over the coming weeks.

All-Mi-T - I'll head over to read your perspective right now!

Villager said...

Yobachi - Actually Bill Richardson is governor of the neighboring state ... New Mexico. I haven't heard what he plans to do ... but, I imagine that he would stay on until the Nevada caucus to see if he can get a more respectable showing. If not, I imagine that he'll pull out of the race.

I wonder if either Clinton or Obama would appoint him to a position in their administration (should either be elected)?

Martin Lindsey. said...

It's a war as someone stated earlier and she got one of the battles. What I want to see is how South Carolinians react to Bill's "fantasy" statement about Barak. That's what has me hot.

Anonymous said...

Congrats on your appearance on NPR, Villager...interesting discussion.

SheCodes said...

I don't think that anything sketchy happened. Polls are a waste of time -- they get busted every election cycle, and every election cycle, the pundits act surprised about it.

A few things happened:

- NH Clinton supporters were mobilized by Obama's decisive victory in Iowa. They were scared that she would be out.

- Some NH Obama supporters felt 'safe' by the strong polls, and stayed home.

- Edwards supporters believed that he had a chance (due to Iowa) and voted for him instead of Obama.

- Two constituencies that Obama depends on the most -- also happen to be the most capricious on election day:

1) The Independents. Many swung to McCain instead of him.

2) The Youth. Young people are NOTORIOUS for not voting on election day -- no matter how excited they are about a candidate. The only thing that will get them out in extremely strong numbers is the threat of a draft.

I happen to think that he will do quite well in South Carolina.

Oh - and I don't think that Hillary 'choking up' made any difference at all to voters. That was all dumb media hype. Most people who vote in primaries are more astute than that.

Yobachi said...

You're right villager, I got them mixed up in my head. I think he still needs to win there or quit taking up space.

It'll be interesting to see how they break in SC alright since women are the majority gender wise in the democratic electorate and blacks are half racially.

Villager said...

Martin and Yobachi - Yes, it appears that we will be playing chess (strategy, moves, counter-moves) instead of checkers (jump, jump, jump, KING ME!). I look forward to seeing how South Carolina swings now that we move out of states with little Black populations. Currently, Obama is splitting the Black vote. Will he get the lion's share in South Carolina? Will Black women support Clinton or Obama? Those are two questions I'm interested in seeing answered on or before the Jan 26th primary.

Villager said...

SheCodes - You make some excellent points. As someone said earlier ... 2 states down; 48 to go. Thank you again for taking time to share your village voice with us!

Anon - Asante sana. It is difficult to do justice during a 17-minute radio slot when there are three panel members and a moderator ... and the moderator wants us to cover 3-4 topics. This was my second time doing the Blogger Roundtable. Hopefully, I'll be invited back at some point in the future.

Woozie said...

Hillary showed she's still got life, and Obama's definitely not going anywhere. At this point, it might be Obama's race to win and Hillary's to lose.

I think the key is humility. Back when Hillary was grandstanding in the summer, that's when she started losing her lead. The night before the primaries, I heard of Obama telling an opponent's supporter (I forgot who) "see you in the general". It seems like as soon as they start with this inevitability argument, no matter how overt or covert, their support slips.

Iya said...

This country, especially African Americans have an opportunity that may never come again. There is a viable, capable, dedicated, qualified, steady, committed candidate for President of the United States. He happens to be Black. We Black voters can make the difference!! I surely hope we will step up...or rather come out for the challenge. I will mail my vote this week! (I saw in the paper today that almost half of my state (CA) votes by absentee ballot.) Another thing that occurs to me as we stand on the brink of a history altering possibility... Black children could then REALLY believe I can grow up to be President.

I remember back to the fiasco of the movie THE COLOR PURPLE... all those Academy Award nominations and we Blacks did so much bad mouthing. How many awards did it win? Whether our badmouthing was related, who know? I just know here we have an opportunity second to none. I hope we won't let it slip away.

I believe I just see something online that richardson has dropped out.

Francis L. Holland Blog said...

I think Barack Obama did great and I think Hillary Clinton did just a little bit better. Remember this: With 39% of voters supporting Hillary and 35 percent supporting Barack, that means that 75% of voters in the Democratic primary voted AGAINST perpetuating the 43-term white male monopoly of the American presidency. They voted FOR change. They voted FOR electing either the first woman or the first Black man.

75% voted AGAINST white male supremacy. That's profound!

Iya said...

'Tis I again....

Had to check this out...re THE COLOR PURPLE. The film was nominated for 11, most in history and won NONE!

Some African American civil rights leaders were upset that a film about a disadvantaged and abused black woman was being directed by Spielberg, who was better known for his fantasy and adventure films rather than a filmmaker of serious dramas even though Alice Walker herself insisted on him directing.

I sure hope we hasve moved beyond thast mentality.

Villager said...

Woozie - You have a good point about overconfidence being a bad thing for either candidate. I was surprised that Obama didn't take advantage of opportunity to be on the morning talk shows that last day in New Hampshire.

Hopefully, the defeat will make him (and his supporters ... like moi!) more humble for the remainder of the campaign.

Villager said...

Iya - Thank you for sharing your village voice with us! -- Omo --

Francis - I can always count on you to provide a cogent perspective to world events. As an aside, I should have an AfroSpear News link for you from NPR in the next few hours.

Marenda MAGNETIC said...

I'm not so sure that people changed their minds about who they were voting for...I think the votes may have been tampered with.

This is gonna be a long and interesting race. Barack Obama will need full ACTIVE & assertive support to win....The enough is enough thought process, the spirit that organized the March on Jena, and more

Villager said...

Marenda - I did hear today that Obama won in those NH cities with paper ballots ... but, lost in those cities with the new touch-screen ballots. So, your tampering charge may not be so far-fetched.

Anonymous said...

I agree that registering voters is certainly an important thing to be doing, both now with the primaries and come November. Getting the voters to come out to the polls and cast their ballots is another important step. And when you are working to make sure your election isn't stolen, please make sure and focus your animosity on the thieves. In listening to NPR last night, I heard your comment to the effect that you were still blaming the Green Party for the outcome. That's sad for at least a couple of reasons. First, I thought that we wanted more diversity in our politics. If the Green Party is running candidates whose views are not being represented by the Democrats and Republicans, that *is* more diversity. So if you need more diversity and the Greens bring more diversity, I'm sorry but I don't see how you can get from point a to point b without traveling the path in between. But second, blaming the Greens is like blaming the third runner in the Olympics for the second place finisher not beating the first place finisher. As in, "huh?" It is true that Nader / GP got more votes in Florida than Gore allegedly lost by. But it is also true that Gore sank his own case by asking only that some votes be recounted and not all. And the Republicans rigged the system up front by their voter purges before the election along with the help of Texas and one of their corporate benefactors, Choice Point. And then there were all those voters that were physically blocked from even getting to the polls then. And then when the media did the recount, they all said that Gore won!! And then when it all came down to it: the Democratic Party's US Senators would not back the Congressional Black Caucus.

So if it makes you feel better to blame the Green Party and Nader, go ahead but it won't solve the problem of what actually happened with the 2000 election.

Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will bring our troops home.

Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will give us a voter verified paper trail across the nation.

Neither the Democrats or the Republicans will force Detroit to give us significantly higher gas mileage on our cars.

Both Democrats and Republicans were responsible for the killing of the energy tax credit for solar energy research and development.

Both the Democrats and Republicans are beholden to corporate interests in this nation, interests that do not have the best interests of people at heart, much less black people.

Cynthia McKinney is running for the Green Party nomination. Check her out at runcynthiarun.org and the Green Party at gp.org.

Villager said...

Anon - You share an impassioned plea against the two-party system. I voted for third-party candidate in the past.

The past seven years of the George Bush administration have been a nightmare for our country. Personally, I do consider the Green Party candidacy of Ralph Nadar in 1980 as part of the reason that Bush is in the office. There are other reasons ... but, the Green Party is a part of that election's legacy.

As for Cynthia McKinney --> she is irrelevant. I think that her candidacy with The Green Party is purely a publicity stunt.

Truthful said...

The voting was rigged in New Hampshire. Ron Paul supposedly received no votes in some districts. When voters in those districts complained, the votes were mysteriously "Found".

Polls before the vote showed Ron Paul and Obama both would do better than the end result.

The voting was rigged. How do you keep a slave happy? You give him a vote in a farce election so that the slave will believe he/she had a say in who runs things.

Meanwhile, it is business as usual.

Truthful said...


Obama and Paul cheated out of votes in New Hampshire.

Villager said...

Truthful - Thank you for this link to article about the widespread fraud in the election process. I live in Ohio ... so I do know the impact that voter fraud can have on a presidential election. I didn't realize that it was such a problem last week in New Hampshire...

59 and counting said...

I hear a lot of folks say that Obama needs substance..well I have not heard any substance from anyone except Edwards and Kucinich. Hope and Experience do not speak to substance.. however both of the candidate's web sites have substantive policy details. It seems that the Clintons(yes both of them) are saying-vote for me(us) because you can't trust him to be intelligent and decisive like they (the Clintons)are. It's getting interesting.Black America will get a chance to see "democracy" at work or just another "fairy tale"

Villager said...

59 and Counting - My opinion is that all of the candidates, including both Obama and Clinton, have laid out substanitive position papers on their websites. My view is that there is little difference in the policy positions for either Obama or Clinton. As such, my vote is swayed by the other intangibles that each candidate brings to the table. I personally beleive that Obama brings a measure of hope and positive change that our nation needs in 2009 and beyond...