February 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton Concedes Nomination to Barack Obama...


...that is going to be the international headlines on Wednesday, March 5, 2008.

Looking into the fire while sitting here under my baobob tree it seems that the headline above could become reality. Here are 13 factoids floating in my mind:
  1. Obama has plenty of money
  2. Obama leads in the popular vote
  3. Obama leads in the pledged delegates
  4. Obama leads in states 23-12; there are 15 states left to vote
  5. Obama is winning by large margins in states all across the nation
  6. Obama demonstrated that he can match or beat the ground game in every state
  7. Clinton & Obama agree on most issues
  8. Clinton already has high negatives ... running more negative ads hurts her more than Obama
  9. Clinton can't hold super-delegates if she can't win any states since Super Tuesday
  10. Clinton is boxed in by the rules on Michigan and Florida delegates
  11. Clinton is good at debates ... but, she ain't that good
  12. Clinton oratory and message is tired and uninspired
  13. Clinton is on wrong side of history re: Iraq War
With these background factoids, it is my view that Obama will win all four primary contests on Tuesday, March 4. He will win Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont.

You recall that I predicted earlier that Obama would win either Ohio and Texas. After watching him royally kick Clinton's butt in Wisconsin ... I feel that it is over.

Villager's Prediction

I predict that Obama is going to roll through all four of the contests on March 4th with a victory. That would mean that Hillary Clinton lost 14 straight contests since Super Tuesday. People keep saying, "Never count the Clintons out". Villagers, you get wiped out in 14 straight states ... you get counted out.

People used to say that Bill Clinton was the "first Black president" because of the affinity that African Americans had with him in the 1990s. He managed to lose all of those chips with his performance in January during the New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina primaries. It is doubtful that African Americans will ever view Bill Clinton the same any longer.

Hillary will face one of those 'Come to Jesus' moments as the election results start coming into her hotel room on March 4th. She will come to the realization that her politics of division and memories of 1990s success simply don't resonate in 2008. America is not looking to build a bridge back to the 20th century. Hillary will realize that her dream of sharing the White House bedroom with Bill Clinton again has been rejected by the voters.

Hillary will realize that she needs to figure out an exit strategy.

Her exit strategy will be to appreciate her job as US Senator from New York. Likely, she will become one of the most visible and vocal leaders in the US Senate in 2009 and beyond. Her strengths are legislation and hearings and such. She will be able to do what she does best in the US Senate. That will become her saving grace.

All of these thoughts will come to her on March 4 when the election results from Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont come rolling in. At that point she will see that there is no chance for pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. Losing 14 straight states makes you reconsider your limited options.

She will sleep on it. Then she will wake up on Wednesday, March 5th and step down. She will concede the nomination to Barack Obama. It will be a gracious and classy move. It will be the beginning of her rebuilding her reputation and should allow her to be a power broker for many years within the Democratic Party. It will position the Democratic Party to unify in the coming battle with John McCain.

That is how I see it sitting here under my baobob tree. What say u?

28 comments:

Woozie said...

Rudy Giuliani with bright blonde hair. What more can I say?

Shelia said...

While we do have a little ways to go, I have been having the same thought process, and I'm sure that we are not the only ones.

I agree that should Hillary lose both Ohio and Texas, she is not going to continue. She's not a Huckabee, she's not going to hang around just for the sake of running.

I'm sure that it hit her in the pit of her stomach today when the Teamsters Union endorsed Obama. OUCH!!

Villager said...

Shelia - I wonder if Huckabee is sitting in front of his television watching this sex scandal allegation about John McCain...

MsMarvalus said...

I would hope that she has already thought of these things and has this thought in the back of her mind...

I would also hope that she knows that it is almost (notice I said almost) futile...Barack has built up so much momentum and is stealing her foundation from right up under her that she is standing on a time bomb...only she can stop it from ticking and blowing up...

Villager said...

Marvalus - Shit. This McCain scandal will cause Hillary to want to stay. She'll be praying that something similiar can happen to Obama...

peace, Villager

Shelia said...

LOL Villager, and you know what Huckabee is saying, "Well I'll be damned, I knew something would happen!"

The Fitness Diva said...

I think Hill is gonna stay in the fight until there's not a dollar left to spend. If she had any sense, she'd quit now, but her pride won't let her. That, and the thought of all the money she's spent to get this far.
She will have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of this election.

Janet Shan said...

I agree with your prediction. Unless she loses the next two states, she'll be in it to the end. I can't see Team Clinton fading in the sunset. As I said on my blog, I believe they had an ulterior motive for everything they have done--move to New York, office in Harlem, running for the presidency. I believe, in part, they wanted their name to be known as the husband and wife team that was the first in USA to ascend the presidency. However, this is not meant to be, at least that's my position given the uphill battle she now faces.

Great insight.

Villager said...

Janet - I think you are right. Moreso, I think that Hillary and Bill thought that they were entitled to the nomination from the Democratic Party. They assumed that this would be a coronation and not a hard-knuckle fight. As such, they weren't prepared for the post-Super Tuesday contests. That is why they are now on a O-for10 since Super Tuesday...

Francis L. Holland Blog said...

I can easily see things progressing exactly as you have predicted here. I hope they do.

Keala said...

You tricked me into coming over here with that title. I thought I was reading NEWS. DANG.

Hillary is too proud and stuck in her ways to concede. I wouldn't put it past her to even cheat to get the nomination.

She would try to get the Michigan and Florida delegate to count. Hill-A-Who would try to change those rules this late in the game. Trust me, she wants it that BAD. The woman misses the White House. She loves living in Washington. She is a crook.

Man, it sounds like I'm bad mouthing Hillary. Oops I am.

I have lost some respect for Bill after his behavior towards Barack Obama.

Trust, Barack will be the next President of the United States, but it won't be easy. Once he legally wins the democratic nomination, he'll have to contend with the evil Republicans. That's going to be one tough road. But, he will win.

Now it sounds like I'm making predictions over your predictions.

I considered writing Hillary a please step down letter myself. I still may do it.

Villager said...

Francis - Asante sana for sharing your village voice with us. As an aside, have you considered claiming your various blogs on Technorati?

Villager said...

Keala - (smile). I did add those three little dots at the end of the title ... then gave the punch line in the first paragraph of my post! However, I'm pleased that it caused you to visit our village today. I appreciate your prediction ... and I encourage you to post your own presidential endorsement on your blog. After all... there is no editor to stop us from speaking our minds on these blogs ... so let's do so!

As for my prediction ... I would caution you and others that I also predicted that the NY Giants would win the Super Bowl!

Gunfighter said...

Agreed.

Remember... in order to be considered victorious in Texas and Ohio, she needs a win with a 65% vote. Moreover, the places that she polls strongest, in Texas, are places that hacve the fewest delegates.

Keala said...

So you have special powers to predict the future.

I pray your prediction comes true because I would hate to lose more respect for Hillary.

As far as my own presidential endorsement, have you read my blog. If you read my blog, my endorsement is clear.

Maybe I need to write a special entry endorsing the Golden Candidate Barack Obama. What do you think?

::hugs and kisses::

Martin Lindsey. said...

Villager, this is a classic hook of a headline. I thought I had missed the news too...LOL!!! You should submit this one to Coppyblogger http://www.copyblogger.com/ the next time he has a blog title contest.

I like the detail of your analysis. Hadn't thought it thru like that myself. The events of the next two weeks will be interesting to see.

I love how this is unfolding. Absolutely love it.

Regina said...

Who do you think will be Obama's running mate?

Villager said...

Gunfighter - You add another factoid that I should have added to the original post. I look forward to the presidential debate tonight...

Villager said...

Fitness Diva - I enjoyed reading your blogs yesterday. I wish you well in your blog efforts, however, I hope that your prediction about Hillary is wrong (smile)...

Keala - I guess the gigantic I SUPPORT OBAMA '08 at the top of your blog should have been a clue (smile)...

Martin - I use my blog titles to try to attract eyeballs and google searches. It's part of my strategy to grow the blog...

Regina - Obama's running mate? I don't have a name, however, I think it needs to be a white man with military experience...

plez... said...

you beat me to the punch... i was going to write a similar post after the debate tonite.

i really hope that she sees that there is no way for her to win the democratic nomination without splintering the party... the last 3 weeks have shown that she has little cache left for this national run... her best bet would be to return to the senate, where she can have that seat for as long as she likes.

great post!

Villager said...

Plez - Write the post. I don't have all the eyeballs coming here and you have a 365-day pledge to keep! Feel free to send me some link-love when you write the post....

zeeska said...

The world is watching on and the question in every ones mind "Is America ready for a Black President?" He has strong support in the Caribbean even the skeptics are beginning to ask "Could it be time for change?"

Villager said...

Zeeska - The question, 'Is America Ready for a Black president?' is still being answered. It appears that the part of America identified as members of the Democratic Party are ready.

We'll find out if the entire country is ready a little later in the year.

peace, Villager

MrsGrapevine said...

Good insight, you posted this before the debate.

justjudith said...

i say you hit the nail on the head and i couldn't have said it better myself -- which is rare. i couldn't agree more.

Villager said...

JustJudith - Yeah, my prediction is looking pretty good today. We'll see how it turns out on March 5th...

Mrs. Grapevine - Asante sana!

Anonymous said...

Omo:
Like one of the posters below, I, too, thought I'd missed today's news.
Hmmm, you may be on to something.
However, knowing me as you do, you know I'll continue to pray!

Much love...

Villager said...

Iya - I noticed that a couple of political pundits from the Washington Post and other mainstream media are also coming around to my prediction (smile)...