November 19, 2007

Obama Pulls Ahead in Iowa Polls

Villagers, did you see the recent polls in Iowa? Barack Obama now has 30% of likely Democratic caucus voters express interest in Iowa. Clinton poll number is now 26%. This is the first poll in quite awhile that shows that Hillary isn't the inevitable Democratic party candidate.
Personally, I think that Hillary is at her peak in Iowa with about 25% of the vote ... while Obama still has room to grow ... especially as other candidates such as Edwards begin to fade. Barack Obama is the favorite second choice for most other candidates. In other words, he benefits when the others begin to drop out of the race.

It seems that those of us that want change and fresh ideas are being heard, especially when we realize that Hillary's honesty and character keep coming into question. Most Democratic likely voters in Iowa, 55 percent, say they're more interested in a "new direction and new ideas" than in strength and experience, compared with 49 percent in July -- a help to Obama, who holds a substantial lead among "new direction" voters. Obama beats her by 2-1 as the most honest and trustworthy candidate. Her advantage on experience, while substantial, has softened since summer. She has notably less support in Iowa than nationally in trust to handle a variety of specific issues -- on Iraq, for example, Obama now runs evenly with her.

I think that the other results from this Washington Post/ABC News poll that should interest folks is how women in Iowa are trending in this primary. Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.

Click here for more ABC News polls

Plenty of open questions remain -- including where preferences wind up at the caucuses six weeks from now and whether or how Iowans' choices resonate elsewhere. Clearly there's room to move: Forty-three percent say there's a chance they could change their minds by the Jan. 3 caucuses; 20 percent say there's a good chance of it.

I must admit that I'm glad to see positive news for Obama. Hopefully, there aren't any more televised debates for the brother. He simply doesn't do well in those debates.

Villagers, have you decided who you want to see as our next President of the United States?


Woozie said...

Not Hillary Clinton and not Rudy Giuliani. I don't trust (or particularly like) the former, and the latter is a terrible diplomat. And he won't shut up about 9/11.

Sorry to rant, but a reporter asked Giuliani about what he remembered from September 12, 2001. You know what Rudy said?

"Well September 12 was the day after September 11, and we must never forget the words of September 11."

Woozie said...

*lessons, not words

Villager said...

Woozie - I agree with you on both counts! Do you live in New York?

Blu Jewel said...

I'm torn over the two as I was once quite partial to Hilary. I like Obama's position, his fresher and more current viewpoints, and his ability to convey without over doing it.

I would love to see him in office, but honestly, I'm not sure that's going to happen in 08.

Villager said...

Blu Jewell - I talked with a number of sisters who are partial to Hillary because she is a woman and because her husband is Bill Clinton. It is a strong historical precedent to see a women elected into office. I respect the conflict that you describe. However, at some point you have to pull the lever and vote for one or the other. I encourage you to vote with your conviction about who would be best for our nation. I think that the answer is Obama. Others think Hillary. Others think Kuninvich. Who do you think?

Barbara said...

I recently learned of a site where you take a quick survey on the important issues, then weigh them, with the results matching you with the candidate who most closely resembles your beliefs. (It gives a breakdown by candidate and shows where you differ, too.) I found the results very interesting and would urge readers to check it out.

As a native Iowan, I believe that trust and conviction of beliefs are quite important for a lot of voters there. I also think that Iowans are tired of negative ads, and too many attacking ads against opponents can backfire for a front runner when it comes time to vote. Most of the country doesn't realize how many ads run on tv, through the telephone and in the papers in Iowa, and how early it all starts.

With that said, the weather may also be a factor in voter turn-out at the caucuses..sad fact, but it is a reality, especially when people have to spend hours there in order to cast a vote.

Villager said...

Barbara - Thank you for sharing your village voice with us. Also for sharing the Glassbooth link. Will you be participating in the Jan 3rd Iowa caucus activity?

Barbara said...

No, I won't as I no longer live in Iowa. (But many of my family will be participating!)

Villager said...

Barbara - All elections are important, but for some reason, this seems like it will be more important than most. I'm glad that your family is participating in Iowa. Their voice will speak loudly in determining direction of the primary campaigns.