February 12, 2008

Prediction: Obama Wins in Ohio or Texas

Many pundits are talking about a divided Democratic party going to the convention in Denver later this year without either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama having enough votes for victory. There is a lot of angst in the Black community about so-called super-delegates going into a smoke-filled room and handing over the election to Team Clinton, much as the Supreme Court handed over the 2000 election to George W. Bush.

I see it different.

Barack Obama ... the 'O'-Man as he is affectionately known by many in The AfroSpear ... swept through the past weekend winning every election and caucus against Hillary Clinton ... the 'Borg Queen' as she is affectionately known by many in The AfroSpear (or maybe it's just Field!). Anyhow, three more contests take place tomorrow night ... and 'O'-Man could win all three ... giving him about eight victories in a row this month. 8-0. That is big Mo' in any league.

Ohio and Texas both hold their voting on March 4th. A Columbus Dispatch poll taken before Super Tuesday shows Clinton with a 23% lead in the polls. Texas polls show Clinton with a 10% lead in the polls.

My prediction is that the constant, continuous and decisive victories by 'O'-Man this month ... combined with him doing well in the debates ... combined with the continued disarray in Team Clinton will result in a remarkable come-from-behind victory by Obama in Ohio or Texas.


I live in Ohio. I witnessed first-hand the election-day controversy in 2004 ... so my hope is for the upset to occur here in my state. However, it is more likely to occur in Texas. I truly believe that the Hispanic voting block that Team Clinton has been counting on is going to abandon her next month in Texas.

If 'O'-Man wins Ohio or Texas ... that should seal the deal for him to come rip-roaring through Pennsylvania in April and he should have enough pledged delegates and momentum to easily win the nomination in August at the convention.

That is my road map for 'O'-Man victory in the Democratic primary season. What say u? Am I drinking the kool-aid or do you sense that this longshot scenario is possible?

22 comments:

Yobachi said...

Just curious, what gives you confidence that Texas hispanics will abandon her?

Also, do you think the voting problems from '04 have been adequately addressed in Ohio?

Villager said...

Yobachi - Three reasons. First, I've been surfing some Latino blogs and I don't see solid strength for her in the posts or comments.

Second, I recall a couple of months ago we were told that majority of Black voters were in Hillary's camp ... in South Carolina we were told that Black women would vote gender and stay with Hillary. However, we saw that paradigm shift and Obama dominates with Black voters. The same can happen with Texas Hispanics.

Third, I think that Hillary looks like Rudy. Rudy gave up on many, many states ... held out for Florida ... and lost. Hillary is giving up on many states ... she is holding out for Texas and Ohio. She will go down!

re: Ohio voting booth issues. Yeah, the main correction was the removal of Blackwell from public office...

Torrance Stephens bka All-Mi-T said...

as long as he close, they gotta split the delegates. The father of Jim Crow

Torrance Stephens bka All-Mi-T said...

PS nice interview folk

Villager said...

All-Mi-T - If Obama keeps winning by wide margins then he will get increased share of the delegates. His last few victories have been by wide margins. He may get more large victories today in DC/MD/VA. If so, the folks in Texas and Ohio may swing towards his message and his momentum.

re: 20 Questions Interview ... thanx! Although all props go to Vanessa for asking the questions...

Janet Shan said...

Great piece Wayne. I beg to differ with you slightly. I think that Obama will not get the majority of the Latino vote. I believe that he will close the gap, but not get most of it. I am looking at this from the New York and California perspectives. On the other hand, I do believe that he will carry Ohio or eat away at most of Clinton's lead.

On a different note: I went to Ohio University back in the early eighties. I loved Athens and my best friend lives in Columbus. Great city and it has grown throughout the years.

O-Man will prevail and get the nomination. At least, from the looks of things, that's my opinion.

I think that Hillary Clinton will go down next to Rudy Giuliani as making the wrong decisions to focus on a few states. Funny, they are both from New York (Hillary, by a round-about way).

http://blackpoliticalthought.blogspot.com

Keala said...

I still believe he has a chance. You know he is my first choice anyway.

I'm a black woman in SC and I voted Obama. So did most of my friends. I know a couple who pledged Hillary for all the wrong reasons. However, Obama shall be the next President of the United States.

Did you see how Hillary abandoned SC after the SC primary? She didn't even stay to thank her supporters. She's going about it all the wrong way.

Obama has momentum and Hillary is slowing down.

Villager said...

Janet - Ohio University is a respected university. I have not been to Athens, OH myself, however, I'm glad to hear the good words about that community.

re: Latino vote. I honestly believe that Latino vote in Texas will surprise folks. Immigration is important issue in Texas. Obama's thoughts on immigration just show better judgement than Clinton. I base that on what I've read of his plans on his website and his answers to the NAACP Civil Rights questionnaire.

I'm glad to see that you think Ohio is in play. Hillary Clinton is counting on Ohio much like Rudy counted on Florida. Hopefully, she'll get a reality-check just like he did...

Villager said...

Keala - South Carolina voters did us proud! Did you attend the Oprah-Obama event held in South Carolina back in December? What was the take on the part of your colleagues when that event occured?

Yobachi said...

Some pretty good points. Particularly the third one. Also she's just fading in general as time goes on, so maybe she'll fade with Hispanics.

There was some slippage from Nevada to Super Tuesday; maybe there will be significant more.

Can we trust the current secretary of state not to rig it for Hillary. I don't know who that is now; but the democratic party machine wants Hillar to win as I explain in my post today, and the republicans want her to win so they can run against her. So no matter which party the SoS is from, it's possible some shenanigans might be up his/her sleeve.

Villager said...

Yobachi - Point well taken. The Ohio governor endorsed Hillary ... so Obama will simply need to win it on the ground. He has time. Let's see how it turns out...

Eddie G. Griffin said...

This race looks like it's building up to a floor fight. Sharpen your elbows.

Villager said...

Eddie - I agree ... prepare for the worst ... sharpen elbows ... get our spears ready and so forth.

However, my vision is simpler. Americans of all genders and nationalities simply come to the realization that Obama is the better candidate ... AND VOTE ACCORDINGLY!

msladydeborah said...

Yobachi,
I am an Ohioan~and it has been quite ulgy since the 04 elections here. But the work of Ohio's progressive community is paying off. I work within in a progressive coalition that has dealt with this problem head on. It has been a hot time here in Columbus, but so far it looks like the issues about ballots may be coming to a positive resolvement.

Ohio has a progressive network that stays in the mix.We deal with a lot of issues in a variety of political arenas.

During the last progressive workshop, every major candidate had supporters in attendance that have been keeping tabs on voters rights. It is no joke and the coalition is multi cultural and very inclusive.

Check out this site call Progress Ohio. You can read information about the voting issues there. You can also keep tabs on what is happening statewide as this political season carries on. There are some pretty well written posts. I recommend Dave Hardin because provides some excellent information and links on a variety of subjects.

There is also a site called Brad's Blog. He writes about election fraud and voting issues on a nationwide level. I read it to keep up with the national issue of voters rights.

Yo Villager~I didn't know you lived in the O~State too! Are you ready to vote? I will be casting my ballot as soon as I get a clear picture of the local issues that are going to be up for decision.

I do not put much stock in the Columbus Dispatch or its polls. It has been openly showing bias for Clinton since the stump began. I have been keeping tabs on the style and types of reports that have come forth in the Dispatch. I suspect that if they could bypass the beatdown Clinton has received over the past few days~they would.

I also think that there is going to be one helluva of a fight for the 3/04 States. Let's not forget that Rhode Island and Vermont voters go to the polls also.

You know that Ohio party politics are conservative on both sides of the aisles. Clinton has received endorsements from some of the big dogs of ODP. Strickland, John Glenn, and Ray Miller have all openly backed her.

But Obama '08 has been established in Ohio for many months. It is just time to bring on the noise and get down with the stump.

I suspect that her numbers may change in Ohio. People seem to forget that there are decent size Latino and African communities here as well. So let's not ignore the impact that they are going to have in the election process.

Anonymous said...

But, how comes hispanics are so attached to Hillary and not to Obama,who's black,white,son of an immigrant,real American for his experiences,courageous and a change activist?Is it that his campaign originally forgot these people or that he undervalued them,maybe like the Asian community?

Villager said...

Lady D - Thanx for sharing that information about Progressive Ohio and the other Ohio-based blogs. I live in Cincinnati. I plan to head to my polling place on 3/4 with my son and daughter so that they can watch me vote! re: election ---> I made my prediction prior to Potomac Primaries. I think Obama will shock Team Clinton in Ohio or Texas.

Anon - I think that Hispanics in California were encouraged to vote early. I think that many California votes were made in December ... well before the surge that Obama made in national polls and victories in national elections. I noticed that Obama won majority of Hispanic votes in the Tuesday voting. I hope he does the same in Texas and Ohio...

Martin Lindsey. said...

The Borg Queen? I think there'll be at least two of us using that one from now on...LOL!!!

The Potamac Sweep was a monster! This is a fight for the ages that won't be forgotten for a long time no matter how it turns out. I think knee pads and neck guards can be thrown into the mix for required convention floor personal gear.

Hey, where can I get an Obama t-shirt with "Fired Up and Ready to Go" on the back of it? I haven't seen that one on his web site catalog but it's been a couple of weeks since I looked. Anybody have a link?

Oh yeah, have you seen the celebrity video created by Will-I-Am of the BlackEyePeas? Bloger won't let me add in the embed link so you'll have to look up "yes we can Obama Song by will-i-am" on YouTube.

Villager said...

Marty - I was able to embed the YouTube "Yes We Can" Obama video. I'm not certain why you are having a problem. In any case, it is a great video.

I see that Hillary is changing her tactics. She is basically saying 'Don't believe the hope'...

I'm glad to see your village voice under our baobob tree. Come back often...

Aaron & Alaine said...

I'll play the skeptic. I'm predicting a loss in Wisconsin today (a close loss, but a loss)for Obama, and I believe he will lose both Texas and Ohio. He will not lose them by big margins and in fact could come out of Texas with more delegates because of their primary rules, but I don't think he wins in those two states. If that plays out, he may also lose PA, again by close margins and the candidates would go into the convention with neither having an unassailable lead in pledged delegates. That sets up the superdelegate showdown and I'm predicting political Armageddon at the convention.

Villager said...

Aaron/Alaine - Your prediction is the absolute worst case scenario for Obama and the best case scenario for Team Clinton. You basically believe that she is going to run the table from this point forward.

We'll know in a few hours if the first part of your prediction (Team Clinton wins Wisconsin) comes true...

Anonymous said...

Its amazing to me to see how people of color have abandoned hillary Clinton after a lifetime of dedicated efforts and achievements toward people of color and civil rights simply because Barak Obama is Black (which he is actually bi-racial, not Black). Any African American out there that can stand up and say they would be as excited about obama's campaign if he were white is lying. And this is really a shame because it detracts from the fact that he is a fine man who imspires people and our nation has lacked such a person such we lost JFK and MLK. I guess whites will have no choice now but to vote for the white guy to keep balance?! Yes folks, race is still the devil that divides our nation.

Villager said...

Anon - I don't speak for all of Black America. However, I admit that part of the magic of Barack Obama for me is that his experience as a Blackman is similiar to mine. That is an added reason to support him. It is not the main reason ... but, it helps...